You're familiar with the theory, if it looks to good to be true, it probably is. This is especially applicable when contemplating wagers, especially on an event that features a spotlight as bright as the superbowl.
     There's a slight variation on the premise though when gambling is involved. It falls under the heading of the negativity theory. When everyone likes one side of the wager, it's a good time to look in another direction.
     It's hard to find one person who hasn't fallen in love with the New York Giants. Needing to win against Dallas in the season's final week just to make the playoffs, the G-Men have rattled off three impressive wins since, including tough road encounters in Green Bay and San Francisco. 
     They will face a weak Patriots defense in the title game and appear to have the kryptonite to combat Tom Brady, the Patriot's quarterback's greatness....a terrific pass rush using their front four linemen.
     It's gotten so, it's hard to find anyone to make a case for the Pats. Even Brady and Bill Belechick might struggle there. Still, the Pats are somehow favored, and if you had to take the case of the general public or the boys in Vegas, it's a mismatch. Grab a cocktail and all you can on New England. It's probably the only way to get the last laugh on a Super Bowl Sunday.

     Every time the Miami Heat loses a game, which hasn't been often, it is a cause for mass hysteria.
     With a handful of defeats and a boatload of early season victories, it appears clear the Heat will be the team to beat in the Eastern Conference. Celtics, too old......Knicks, laughable......Chicago, maybe....but the road to the championship round looks like a breakaway layup for the likes of Lebron, Wade and company.
     Regardless, Heat fans and analysts have so little to be concerned with that considering the absurd has become the rule of thumb.
     Are the Heat a better team without Lebron, no.....should they trade Dwayne Wade, again negative. Is Chris Bosh someone they should keep, of course.
     But every loss or any victory without all of these guys in the lineup seems to trigger conversation about reconfiguring the team without one of the big three.
     It's time that conversation stopped. Anyone of these guys on a roster makes your team a contender. Having all three should eventually spell a couple of championships at the least. Stop the crying Heat fans, just sit back and watch these guys go out and win.

     The '07 Superbowl was, no doubt, one of football's most dramatic and compelling championships.
     As the Giants and Patriots assembled in the Arizona desert, the Pats were gunning for the unprecedented distinction of becoming the only 19-0 title team in league history, and they were a game away from that accomplishment while hardly being the league's favorite sons.
     The '72 Fins stopped just short of holding a Santeria ceremony to stop Brady and company from eclipsing their 17-0 season, and, with their penchant for breaking common football protocol by running up scores late in games and rubbing their opposition's nose in their greatness, Bill Belichick hardly had the country deep in the Patriots corner.
     A miracle play late by Eli Manning and David Tyree triggered the denial of Patriot glory, making the possibility of a rematch this year especially juicy for the fans, league and TV execs alike.
     There are large hurdles facing both teams Sunday. With the Giants on a roll like Charlie Sheen in a whore house with a fistful of blow, they still have to go on the road and beat San Fran. The Pats seem a more likely playoff survivor, but, if both teams prevail, punch my ticket because it could just be deja vu all over again.

     It's a shame money can't buy you ingenuity when it comes to running a sports franchise.
     In witnessing the supposed waffling that has been going on with former Titans coach Jeff Fisher, the main target of  the Fins coaching search, you have to wonder if Stephen Ross, the team's owner, shouldn't just dump an omelette on his face to begin each morning.
     Supposedly the Fins are willing to part with 35-40 million dollars across five years to acquire Fisher's coaching services. This for a guy who has a total of zero NFL championships, and has posted 6 winning seasons in 17 years with the same franchise.
     Fisher may well be the best guy available, but that resume hardly seems like the kind of stuff that would allow this once proud franchise to tolerate this kind of indecisiveness with a phenomenal offer like that on the table. Like the guy who brings two girls to the dance, Fisher can't decide who to go home with, a choice that hardly rings with confidence he can bring the certainty of success to this franchise.
     Fisher's reluctance to name this as his destination of choice should have been enough to void the offer and move on. His past performance in this case would qualify his name as a scratch for the Fins.
     But this is, after all, sports....where the rich become stupid and the average become rich.

     The Orange Bowl game, through the years, has certainly staged more than it's share of classics. Games that decided national titles, triggered a long period of dominance by the Miami Hurricanes, and generated many historic and heroic plays and players have been a signature of the South Florida classic.
     But every now and then, it has produced a matchup that left fans of the visiting teams clearly out of place.
     That was the case as Clemson met West Virginia on Wednesday night. The game was a blowout and a nice showcase for some returning local talent that manned the winning Mountaineer squad. But the buildup may as well have been labeled Hillbillies on South Beach.
     Imagine the horror of the Clemson and West Virginia faithful as they lined up at the fancy schmancy foo foo restaurants on Ocean Drive.
     No possum on the menu here. People who consider road kill a meal were definitely left to ponder what the South Beach equivalent of Bergoo might be. Isn't the main ingredient there squirrel? Medallions of mahi at $49.95 a crack would hardly appeal to people who believe the musket is a weapon of mass destruction.
     To make any party work, you have to invite the right people. Another unfortunate byproduct of the BCS is having the staff at the news Cafe muttering to each other, "guess who's coming to dinner."

     We've rolled into 2012 and the local sports calendar is loaded. The Dolphins will find a new coach, and hopefully a long time leader. The Marlins will land in a new ballpark, and, after taking the rubber band off their billfold, will do so with an infusion of new, high priced talent.
     The Panthers have a new approach and have passed through November without being mathematically eliminated from the playoffs for the first time in years, a trend fans pray will continue.
     Yet, the team with the greatest chance and pressure to succeed is clearly the Miami Heat. Mickey Arison's team came within a couple of games of winning the title last season, and, after rattling off five wins to begin the season, finally incurred their first loss in game six. As the dating sites describe bodies, the Heat are athletic and toned, but they appear to have one bizarre achilles heal, and it's not a penchant for coffee and conversation.
     They can't figure out how to beat a simple zone defense. Seems impossible. A defense you see at any park has the Heat falling to its collective knees like it was physical kryptonite.
     Hard to imagine something so primitive could be so perplexing, but until Miami can solve this problem, both Pat Riley's and Arison's hair may be standing up like Don King's, and the big 3 may be left wiating for that title again.